Climate Change and Snow Tourism in Australia

Abstract. This paper examines impacts of climate change as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCQ on the snow-reliability ofthe Australian ski fields. It is shown that with a «best case» climate scenario for the Australian Alps, all but one resort (Mt Baw Baw) would have at least 60 days of natural snowcover in 2030 and would therefore still be snow-reliable. With a «worst case» scenario in 2070 on the other hand, none of Australia's current ski resorts would be able to operate a profitable ski industry. Possible adaptation strategies of the ski industry to climate change are suggested. It is demonstrated that the more technical adaptation strategies such as snow-making, super-grooming, and snow-farming are well-developed in Australia, while clearly not enough has been done in both the development of non-snow related activities in winter and an enhanced all-season Visitation. This paper therefore argues that Australian ski resorts need to diversify more than they do today or they will ultimately close due to the negative effects of climate change.


Introduction
The theory that greenhouse gas increases could cause global warming has been recognised in the scientific world for about a Century.It was, however, only in the 1980s that the scientific debate over future climate change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect became intensive.Since the mid 1980s there has been an escalation in publications on climate change and considerable progress has been achieved in our understanding of im¬ pacts from an increasing greenhouse gas concentration on global climate.Despite many remaining uncertain¬ ties, the most recent research on climate change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect undertaken by the Inter¬ governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) tends to Support the theory that the Earth's climate is changing and that: «the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate» (Houghton et al. 1996:39).
Future climate change as projected by the IPCC may affect tourism in several ways.First, it is expected that such climate change would have significant implications for tourist activities.Under the effects of climate change, certain tourist activities (e.g., snow-related or beach tourist activities) may only be possible in certain reduced areas or may even disappear.Generally, tourist activities which require major investment in fixed facilities and cannot be diversified elsewhere (e.g., downhill skiing) would be most negatively affected by climate change.On the other hand, it is possible that certain tourist activities (e.g., golf or camping) may be positively affected.Additionally, climate change would have impacts on the natural and built environment and therefore may change the attractiveness of the land¬ scape (Price 1994).This expectation is important be¬ cause much tourism is based on an attractive landscape (Cohen 1978, Pigram 1980).Considering the importance of climate change to the tourism industry, there is a paucity of research on im¬ pacts of climate change on tourism.For instance, Smith (1990) and Abegg (1996) argue that tourism has been largely neglected by the climate impact researchers.
Moreover, Wall (1992: 215) pointed out clearly that: «...Although the implications [of climate change] for tourism are likely to be profound, very few tourism re¬ searchers have begun to formulate relevant questions, let alone to develop methodologies which will further our understanding of the nature and magnitude of the challenges which lie ahead.» The lack of climate change impact research on socioeconomic Systems in general and the tourism industry in particular may be explained by the complexity and unpredictable nature of these Systems.Unlike in the field of climate change impact research on biophysical Systems, where many non-climate factors can be held constant in order to Single out the impacts of climate change, the nature of socioeconomic Systems precludes such analysis (see Timmermann 1989).In the case of tourism, changing non-climatic factors such as leisure trends, tourism policies or the world economy make projeetions of the impacts of climate change on the in¬ dustry very difficult.
Most of the climate change impact research on tourism to date has investigated impacts on the ski industry (e.g. Lamothe & Periard Consultants 1987; Österrei¬ chische Akademie der Wissenschaften 1993, Wall 1993, Abegg 1996).Fewer studies have investigated such impacts on coastal tourism (e.g.Krupp 1995, United Kingdom Climate Change Impact Review Group 1996), freshwater tourism (e.g.Keys et al.   1990), camping and golf (e.g.Wall et al. 1985).
Studies on the impacts of climate change due to an en¬ hanced greenhouse effect on the snow-pack in Australia suggest that climate change would increase the frequen¬ cy of winters with little natural snow (Haylock et al.  1994, Whetton et al. 1996).Under this climate change, the alpine tourism industry would have to deal more often with shortened and more marginal ski sea- sons.This is expected to reduce the number of skier days in resorts, despite extensive snow-making, result¬ ing in similar negative impacts on businesses as in the poor snow seasons of 1988 and 1993.Indeed, it has been suggested that because of the already marginal snow conditions under current climate, even a small temperature increase would have serious impacts on the Australian winter tourism industry (Galloway 1988).First, this paper provides a brief introduction to the Australian winter tourism industry.
Second, the paper shows how climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect may influence the snowreliability of Australian ski fields.
Third, the pereeption of representatives of the Austra¬ lian winter tourism industry concerning the possibility of changing climate is discusssed and possible re¬ sponse strategies ofthe ski industry to climate change are examined. 2The Australian winter tourism industry Winter tourism, together with water resource Opera¬ tions, are the largest activities in the Australian Alps.
Currently, there are ten ski resorts in Australia.They are either grouped together in the South-East of New South Wales just to the east of the Great Divide) or more scat- tered over the alps of Victoria (see Figure 1).
Most ski resorts are located in or at the border of a na¬ tional park (Kosciusko National Park, New South Wales; Alpine National Park, Victoria).Compared with European Standards, the ski fields all have modest vertical drops.In terms of both mean elevation and mean annual snowfall, the Australian ski fields are at the low¬ er end of global norms (Hewitt 1997).Nevertheless.
the largest Australian ski resort, Perisher Blue.offers more than 1250ha of downhill ski area and 50 transport facilities (chair lifts, T-bars and rope tows) with a trans¬ port capacity of 47 000 skiers/hour.which means that it has one of the largest individual resort capacities in the world (Hewitt 1997).The winter tourism industry is the main economic contributor to Australia's alpine are¬ as, and is therefore of significant regional economic im¬ portance (Boylen 1997).The winter tourism industry contributes approximately AS 410 million per annum to the Victorian and New South Wales State economies and creates around 12 000 seasonal full-time Jobs dur¬ ing good snow seasons (Buckby et al. 1993, KPMG Management Consulting 1994).The Australian winter tourism industry has to cope with highly-variable natural snowfalls (Ruddell et al.   1990).The high variability ofthe snow-pack in Australia's alpine area is closely associated with (1) preeipita¬ tion which is also, highly variable, and (2) the low altitude of the Australian Alps (the highest peak of the Australian continent, Mt Kosciusko, only reaches 2228m, whereas several ski fields in the European Alps for example reach up to 3500m).In addition, the relatively low latitude of the Australian Alps leads to high solar radiation and therefore a relatively high tempera¬ ture regime, contributing to a variable snow-pack (Hewitt 1997).Snow-deficient winters (as in 1982,   1988, 1993 and 1998) during which only a small number of lifts operated for a shortened season, impose considerable difficulties for the whole alpine tourism industry.During these seasons resort Operators do not make any profit on their large Investments.Between 1985 and 1992, for example, over A$ 552 million were invested in the resorts ofthe southern Snowy Mountains (Grenier 1992), with the total capital investment in the Australian alpine resorts therefore likely to have ex- ceeded several billion dollars.In addition, all associated commercial activities such as aecommodation.restau- rants, ski schools, ski shops and ski retailers are also affected by poor snow conditions.The considerable re¬ gional economic impact of the ski industry is therefore significantly reduced during poor snow seasons.
3 Climate change and the snow-reliability of the Australian Alps

Method
The method used to assess impacts of climate change on the snow reliability of Australian ski resorts has been developed by Haylock et al., 1994 and Whetton et   al., 1996 and is described in more detail in these studies.
It is a combination of: (1) the snow-cover duration mod¬ el of Galloway (1988); (2) an observed interannual climate data set for the Australian Alps which was interpolated to a grid of high spatial resolution (using an interpolation method which allows for effect of elevation on climate); and (3) a best and worst case regional cli¬ mate change scenario based on global climate modeis.
The observed climate data ofthe grid are used as inputs to the «snow model which then produces Output of snow-cover duration for each grid point.The regional climate change scenarios modify the input climate data to the model, in order to show the impact on simulated snow-cover duration of climate changes» (Whetton et   al. 1996).Snow-cover duration for the grid points dosest to the lowest and highest lifted points ofthe ski fields (altitude and distance) was calculated from the snow model.This calculation was carried out for current climate condi¬ tions.for the best case regional climate scenario and the worst case regional climate scenario as shown in Table 1.The Computing of the snow data was undertaken in collaboration with the Australian National Science Or¬ ganisation, the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Re¬ search Organisation, CSIRO (Division of Atmospheric Research).The regional climate scenarios which were used as input to the Galloway snow-cover duration model are based on the most recent IPCC climate sce¬ narios (Houghton et al. 1996) and were calculated by Climate Impact Group (1996).They differ from those used by Haylock et al., 1994 and Whetton et al.,   1996.
The advantage of Galloway's snow model is its sim- plicity.The only climate input-data required in order to calculate snow accumulation and snow ablation are monthly mean temperature, monthly mean preeipitation and Standard deviation of daily temperature.Three fac¬ tors, however, may have a negative effect on the value of the snow model for Statements about the snow-reliabili¬ ty of ski fields: First, the snow-model provides no information on snow-depth.For example.days with snow-cover of 1 or 2cm appear as snow-cover days.Skiing, however, is certainly not possible on snow of such depth.
Second, there were several seasons in Australia with late snowfalls.when resorts closed Operation in early October with a deep snow-pack still present (e.g. 1990,1992).The snow-model calculates snow-cover duration throughout the entire year, without considering ifa particular snow-cover day falls within or outside the «official» ski season.However.when calcu- lating snow-cover duration under a changing climate regime the snow season will not only be shortened but will also «concentrate» on the coldest months of the year (July and August).Fewer days with snowcover outside the ski season are expected to be calcu¬ lated by the model.
Third. the snow model does not consider artificial snow-making.
The first two factors may result in an overestimation of the potential number of ski Operation days.The third factor, the non-consideration of snow-making, results in an underestimation of the potential number of ski Oper¬ ation days by the snow model.  1984.The so-called 100 days-rule, first suggested by Witmer (1986), summa- rised most of the previous research and stated that to profitably operate a ski field in Europe or North Ameri¬ ca, snow-cover sufficient for skiing (i.e., 30cm for downhill skiing and 15cm for cross country skiing) should last at least 100 days per season (between the first of December and the end of April for the Northern Hemisphere).
Hewitt (1997) applied the 100-days rule to the three Australian resort Falls Creek, Mt Buller, and Mt Hotham for the 10 years 1986 to 1995.He showed that Falls Creek matched the 100 days-rule during this period in only four seasons.The comparable figures for Mt Bull¬ er and Mt Hotham were two and four respectively.Although the Australian ski resorts therefore clearly do not match the European and North American Standard of snow-reliability, the ski industry in Australia is financially viable.Therefore, it is clear that the 100-days rule is too strict in order to assess snow-reliability of Aus¬ tralian ski fields.The main reason for this is that Aus¬ tralian skiers tend to accept more marginal snow condi¬ tions than is commonly the case in North America or Europe (Galloway 1988).Slayter et al. (1985: 33 1)   for example stated that: «Australian skiers have the reputation of being prepared to ski on anything, particularly at the beginning and the end of the season.»This can be explained by the high percentage of novice, beginner and intermediate skiers skiing in Australian resorts (Buckby et al. 1993,  Travers Morgan 1990).These skiers demand less so- phisticated ski run variety than advanced and expert ski¬ ers.Also, in contrast to most people skiing in North America and Europe, skiing is still an exclusive activity for most Australians.Australian skiers therefore tend to have relatively low expectations toward snow condi¬ tions.
Following this, Galloway (1988) suggested that a mean snow season of 60 to 70 days is about the mini¬ mum for a financially viable downhill ski Operation in Australia.From Hewitt's (1997) data it can be seen that in every winter between 1986 and 1995, Falls Creek had more than 60 days with more than 30cm of snow.
Mt Buller and Mt Hotham matched this criteria in eight out of the ten winters between 1986 and 1995.
Best-case 2030 +0.3°C / 0% The first figure ofthe climate scenario indicates changes in temperature (°C), the second figure shows changes in preeipitation (%) (+) indicates that the pre-requisites in terms of natural snow-cover duration for a financially viable ski Operation (60-days rule) are met; indicates that the pre-requisite in ternis of natural snow-cover duration for a financial¬ ly viable ski Operation are questionable; (-) indicates that the pre-requisite in terms of natural snow-cover dura¬ tion for a financially viable ski Operation are not met Schneesicherheit der Skigebiete Änderungen der Temperatur in °C/Prozentuale Änderung der Niederschlagsmenge (+) Die Voraussetzungen für einen profitablen Skibetrieb sind gegeben; Die Voraussetzungen für einen profi¬ tablen Skibetrieb sind fragwürdig; (-) Die Voraussetzungen für einen profitablen Skibetrieb sind nicht gegeben Garantie d'enneigement des stations skiables Changements de la temperature en °C/Changement en pourcentage des preeipitations (+) Les conditions pour l'exploitation du ski sont assurees; Les conditions pour une exploitation du ski profitable sont incertaines; (-) Les conditions pour une exploitation du ski profitable ne sont pas assurees The minimum of approximately 60 days of Operation per season for a ski field to break even, has been confirmed by most interviewed resort managers.The snow reliability of Australian ski fields is therefore defined as follows: An Australian ski field is considered snow-reliable if skiing is possible on at least 60 days during the ski sea¬ son (i.e., between the June long weekend and the October long weekend).The aim therefore was to show if Australian ski resorts would still match the 60-days rule under changing cli¬ mate conditions.Table 1 shows the results ofthe snow- cover duration calculation under different climate sce¬ narios.
Assuming the best case scenario, all but one resort (Mt Baw Baw) match the 60-days rule in 2030.In 2070 (with the best-case scenario) five resorts still have the pre-requisites for a financially viable ski industry (Perisher-Blue, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo, Falls Creek, Hotham), while the prerequisites are questionable at Mount Buller, Mount Buffalo and Selwyn Snow fields.
At Mt Baw Baw a successful ski Operation would not be possible.Assuming the worst case scenario for 2030, a financially viable ski Operation would not be possible at Selwyn Snow fields, Mount Buffalo and Mt Baw Baw.Charlotte Pass would be the only resort still achieving the 60 days rule.At all other resorts, ski Operation would concentrate on the highest areas of today's ski fields, while top to bottom skiing would not be possible in most resorts.With the worst case scenario, none of today's ski resorts would be operating a profitable ski industry in 2070.When comparing New South Wales and Victorian re¬ sorts (see Figure 1), it is evident that the latter are more vulnerable to climate change than the New South Wales resorts.If climate changes as outlined occurred, a con¬ centration of the ski industry to the highest ski fields (Hotham and Falls Creek in Victoria and Charlotte Pass, Perisher-Blue and Thredbo in New South Wales) is ex¬ pected.Assuming today's snow-making technology, the lower resorts would have to close down.In the higher ski fields, where skiing will concentrate, environmental problems (waste water, rubbish) and the pressure for extension into higher alpine areas are likely to increase.This would undoubtedly result in conflicts with both conservation groups and the Alpine National Parks.It is worth mentioning that the snow-model used here produces average snow data.Snow records in the Aus¬ tralian Alps show, that in the past, two out of ten years were poor snow seasons.Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of poor snow years, while the number of good snow years will decrease.The ski in¬ dustry is undoubtedly more vulnerable to a series of ex¬ treme events than to a relatively small change of aver¬ age conditions.A consecutive series of poor snow seasons, for example, certainly has a greater impact on the ski industry than a relatively slow decrease in the number of days with snow-cover.This was clearly illustrated during the three consecutive snow-deficient win¬ ters in the European Alps (1987)(1988)(1989)) which had severe impacts on the whole alpine tourism industry (see Abegg 1996, for example).An important question for ski resort Operators when facing climate change is therefore the maximum number of years with poor snow conditions over a certain period of time (e.g., 10 years) that the resorts can accommodate in their financial plans.It is evident that sufficient snow conditions are of great importance for the ski industry.However, it has to be emphasised that good snow conditions are a necessity but not the only condition needed for a financially-viable ski industry.Other factors, such as leisure trends, the general development of the national economy or the marketing of the resorts also influence the ski tourism market.Also, not only the snow conditions but also the attitudes of skiers and response strategies of resorts are expected to change if climate change were to occur.The following section discusses the perception of represent- atives of the Australian ski industry concerning the pos- sibility of changing climate due to the enhanced green¬ house effect and discusses possible response strategies of the industry to climate change 4 Perception and Possible Response of the Ski Industry

Perception
The implications of future climate change due to en¬ hanced greenhouse effect in general, possible impacts on the tourism industry, and the significance of these impacts were discussed with resort managers of all Aus¬ tralian alpine resorts and key employees ofthe manage¬ ment bodies of the ski industry (Alpine Resorts Com¬ mission and New South Wales National Parkes and Wildlife Service) (n   17).As a result of these inter¬ views it became clear that: Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect is of no consideration in current operating and planning the ski fields; and the ski industry perceives research dealing with im¬ pacts of climate change on the alpine region and the ensuing media coverage as a threat.
The majority of resort managers (9 of 10) considered the possibility of future climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect as not important in operating and planning the resort.The three main reasons given for this were: The resorts are concerned about short-term profus.The time-frame of climate scenarios are too long to be of importance for the resorts.They need to know what will happen in the next 3 to 5 years.Projeetions of up to 30 or even 100 years are not considered as being useful; the science of future climate change is not good enou¬ gh.It is not yet proven that global temperature will increase; and even if there will be less snow due to climate change, it is argued that technology may improve so, that re¬ sorts will be able to produce snow at much higher temperatures than today.
It is interesting to note that Swiss tourism managers are much more concerned about climate change (Abegg 1996) than their Australian colleagues.The only resort where the possibility of future climate change has been an issue is Thredbo.At the end of the 1980s, when pub¬ lic awareness about future climate change peaked, Thredbo employed a research officer with the task of investigating possible impacts of climate change and making recommendations to, the management board (Kefford 1988).It is not clear if the report had direct consequences for the planning ofthe ski field in Thred¬ bo.It can, however, be expected that the extensive ex¬ pansion of snow-making and the strong promotion of all year round tourism by Thredbo are at least partly an outcome of this report.In summary, the general opinion among resort manag¬ ers was that resorts already do everything possible in order to adapt to the current high variability of snowfall (e.g., snow-making, snow-farming).They believe that these same strategies would help if there were to be less snow in the future (although it was not believed that this would happen).With the exception of Thredbo, none of the resorts explicitly considered the possibility of a diminishing snow-pack due to climate change in the plan¬ ning and Operation of resorts.It may, however, be ar¬ gued that the relatively effective adaptation of the Australian ski industry in terms of technical adaptation strategies to the current large snow-variability (see next Section) is the best way to adapt to an uncertain future climate, and that the industry therefore implicitly al¬ ready adapts to climate change (for a general discussion about adaptation to current climate variability versus adaptation to future climate change, see Smit 1993;Burton 1997).
Interviewees of the ski industry perceived research on impacts of climate change due to the enhanced green¬ house effect on the alpine area and the attendant media coverage as a threat for their business.It was pointed out that newspaper headlines such as «Our ski slopes melt away» (Herald Sun 22 February 1994), «Ski slopes face dry run» (Herald Sun 11 June 1997) or «Climate chaos for ski resorts» (The Mercury 11 June 1997) are bad publicity for the alpine tourism industry.
It was generally feit that this media coverage has the potential to influence investment in the alpine area (e.g. from going skiing.Also, the press attache to the Austral¬ ian Professional Ski Shop Association in 1991 wrote: «,... the positive effect of last winter [ 1991 ] has removed the Greenhouse effect from the front pages of the newspapers, thus allowing normal or increased trading» (Talbot 1991: 8).This perception ofthe ski industry about climate change media coverage being a main threat for the ski industry, often results in an agressive attitude towards anybody who is «talking greenhouse».
There is no doubt that media coverage projeeting «the end»of the commercial ski Operation in the Australian Alps due to, climate change is amunition for conservation groups which oppose any further development of the existing ski fields.The Victorian National Parks As¬ sociation for example, argued that global warming and greenhouse implications do not bode well for the long term viability of downhill ski resorts in Australia and concluded that therefore no further development of the ski resorts (as discussed for Mt Stirling) should be un- dertaken (Waterman 1996).The issue of impacts of climate change on the alpine area is therefore very polit-ical.Both sides (the ski industry and conservation groups) use existing data very selectively for their own purpose.
In summary, climate change due to enhanced green¬ house effect is on the whole of no consideration in cur¬ rent planning and Operation of Australian ski resorts.
The ski industry fears possible negative economic im¬ pacts of media reports stemming from the «global warming» discussion.Most representatives of the in¬ dustry therefore deny that future climate change would have severe impacts on the alpine region.
4.2 Possible Response Strategies of the Ski Industry Figure 2 shows the ränge of possible response strategies ofthe resorts to climate change.They can be subdivided into (1) those which maintain ski tourism (including ar- tificial snow-making, flexible ticket price policy, ski slope design/super grooming, development of higher terrain, snow farming), ( 2) non-snow related activities in winter, and (3) all-season Visitation.Each adaptation strategies is briefly described below.Because of its importance, «artificial snow-making» and «all-season tourism» are discussed in further detail.
A flexible ticket price policy adapts ticket prices in accordance to the number of lifts running in order to attract more skiers in poor snow seasons.
Ski slope design and super grooming both aim at maintaining a long lasting snow cover.Ski slope de¬ sign includes consideration of micro climate effects associated with aspect (wind, direction, sun), sub- surface drainage, as well as the space requirement for skiers.Super grooming involves the removal of sur¬ face irregulation such as rocks and bushes to provide an even surface.Higher areas generally offer greater snow-depth and drier snow and are therefore an attractive Option for development of ski fields Snow farming includes snow fencing, transportation of snow from surplus accumulation areas to highwear areas and snow grooming.
The supply of non-snow related activities in winter aims at reducing the snow-reliance of the alpine tou¬ rism industry.The idea is to offer skiers alternative activities if skiing is not possible.
Most of these strategies are «no regrets» strategies, that is they are worthy of consideration even if climate change does not occur because of today's high variabil¬ ity of snowfalls.It should be mentioned that those adap¬ tation strategies summarised under «maintain ski tour¬ ism» (Figure 2) are relatively well developed in Australia.Not enough has been done in the develop¬ ment and implementation of «non-snow related activi¬ ties in winter» and an enhanced «all-season Visitation».

Snow-Making
The results of a skier survey undertaken in the Perisher Range resorts during the 1996 ski season (Koenig 1998) showed that «lots of snow-making» is the most important thing skiers are looking for when choosing a resort in future snow-deficient winters (89% of re- spondents considered it as important).Extensive expan¬ sion of snow-making therefore remains the most promising strategy in order to attract skiers in poor snow seasons.However, it is important to stress that snow- making facilities such as fixed high pressure snow guns, water pipelines and water dams may affect the appear- ance of the resorts in summer and are thus expected to impact the growth of all-season Visitation in a negative way.Also, economic, climatic, and ecological factors may limit the future extensive expansion of snow-mak¬ ing facilities: Favourable climate conditions for snow-making are low temperatures and low humidity.Temperatures below -5°C and humidity of less than 65% are ideal (Ruffini   1993).Snow-making additives (e.g., Snowmax) which are widely used in the Australian Alps (New South Wales National Park and Wildlife Service 1994, Darby 1994) and advances in snow-making technolo¬ gy, however, allow the production of snow under more marginal conditions.More research into impacts of cli¬ mate change on the potential hours of snow-making is required.Suggestions referring to impacts of climate change on the potential hours of snow-making have been made by Whetton (1996).To be most beneficial, this research should be undertaken in collaboration with the ski-industry.
Artificial snow-making requires enormous amounts of water.Water shortage and other environmental issues may restrain the extension of snow-making and/or in¬ crease investment costs.Artificial snow-making is ex- pensive.High costs, together with water shortage, are the main reasons for resorts not extending their area of snow-making.
There is no doubt that snow-making improved the ski¬ ing conditions and therefore stabilised the revenue of the Australian ski industry over the last 10 years.How¬ ever, it is unlikely that artificial snow-making can, for the reasons discussed above, replace natural snow in the future.To open an entire resort, the ski industry will still largely contingent on the presence of sufficient natural snow.Nevertheless, even under climate change, there will be times when snow making will be possible.A large snow-making capacity is therefore expected to re¬ main an important market advantage if climate change were to occur.The shorter the time period gets when snow-making is possible, the more important will a high snow-making capacity become.This will be a clear disadvantage for smaller resorts with less financial means and will enhance the concentration of the ski in¬ dustry on the larger, financially stronger resorts.
All-season tourism The most effective strategy to reduce snow-reliance of the alpine tourism industry is the enhancement of allseason tourism.This includes tourism in spring, sum¬ mer and autumn and all climate independent tourism such as Conference tourism, educational tourism and health tourism.Although all-year patronage in the Aus¬ tralian alpine resorts has increased over the last few years, it is, with the exception of Mt Buffalo and Thred¬ bo, still marginal.However, the successful examples of the two resorts Thredbo and Mt Buffalo, the general ob¬ served trend away from beach holidays towards activity and education holidays, and the growth of adventure sports such as mountain biking and para-gliding (e.g. Lynch & Veal 1996) all indicate a promising future for all-year tourism in the Australian Alps.
Clearly, those resorts with an attractive appearance, offering a lively village centre with facilities and Services such as shops, restaurants, coffee shops, news agencies etc., have good pre-requisites to increase all-year pa¬ tronage.It is not surprising that Thredbo with its «vil¬ lage atmosphere» has the highest percentage of overnight stays and day-trippers in summer of all New South Wales resorts.It can therefore be stated that an attractive appearance ofthe resort and the availability of facilities and Services are the most important prerequisites for in¬ creasing all-year tourism.
While the mountain scenery and the mainly undisturbed alpine environment is certainly the basis for an in¬ creased all-year Visitation, it is not alone sufficient for increasing non-winter Visitation.Resorts need to attract potential all-year visitors with «something special».All alpine resorts can offer access to an undisturbed alpine environment and most resorts offer activities such as mountain biking, guided walks, horse riding etc.It is important to stress that with an expected increase in competitiveness between the resorts for all-year tour¬ ism, it will be necessary to have one or several Unique Selling Positions (USP) in order to survive.This USP can be a natural or built site, or a specific activity exclusively offered in the resort.Thredbo, for example, offers the dosest Walking distance to the highest peak of Aus¬ tralia (Mt Kosciusko) and is the only resort with the so called «Alpine Slide».Mt Buffalo is one of the few places in Australia where hang-gliders train and competitions are organised regularly (e.g.women's world championships in 1996).Another USP of Mt Buffalo is the 1910 built Chalet Hotel, a unique building in the Alps.It is one of Australia oldest and largest historic guesthouses.Also, both resorts offer cultural events which are unique in the Alps.Thredbo holds annual Blues, Jazz, and Film festivals and Mt Buffalo organises an annual «Opera Chorus in the Alps».All events report remarkable success.

Conclusions
Climate change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to concentrate the Australian ski industry on the highest resorts with the best natural snow falls and the best conditions for snow-making.This would create «twoclasses» of resorts (1) smaller resorts at lower altitudes which will lose their downhill ski Operation first; and (2) larger resorts, at higher altitudes where downhill skiing remains possible.However, in the long run (as¬ suming worst case climate scenario for 2070) none of Australia's resorts will be snow-reliable.
Mt Buller.Mt Buffalo, Selwyn Snow fields and Mt Baw Baw will lose their downhill ski industry first.Clearly, assuming today's snow-making technology, only those resorts which diversify into all-year tourism will be able to maintain a financially viable tourism industry.De- pending on their degree of diversification, resorts may be able to remain in the tourism business or will, in con- junction with the disappearance of the snow, lose their tourism industry altogether.All-year tourism must be¬ come the main source of income for these resorts.In winters with good snowfalls these marginal ski resorts may still offer groomed cross country skiing tracks, which are much cheaper to maintain than downhill ski facilities (i.e.lifts, groomed downhill slopes).Resorts which make enough profit in the non-snow season may also be able to afford the luxury of maintaining one or two ski lifts which operate in good snow seasons.In other words, marginal resorts which maintain downhill ski Operation under climate change (e.g. for image rea¬ sons) will have to subsidise this with a profitable sum¬ mer tourism industry.Due to the overall decline of downhill ski Operation under climate change (less visi¬ tors, less snow-making, less super grooming), negative impacts on the alpine environment will decrease in these marginal resorts.
Australia's ski Operations are expected to concentrate at Charlotte Pass, Thredbo, Perisher-Blue, Falls Creek and Hotham if climate change were to occur.It is important to stress that these ski fields will also have to cope with more marginal snow seasons under changing climate conditions.The decrease in skier Visitation due to more poor snow seasons will result in lower incomes for re¬ sorts.Simultaneously, costs will increase due to the re- quirement of more snow-making facilities, extended ar¬ eas of super grooming and more sophisticated snow farming because of less natural snowfalls.These two factors.decreasing income and increasing costs, are ex¬ pected to decrease the profit of the ski resorts significantly.Hence, although skiing remains possible at these resorts, those which reduce their snow-reliance through the provision of non-snow related activities in winter and diversification into all-year tourism will be most profitable.The expected extension of super grooming, in combination with more snow-making is expected to increase the pressure on the alpine environment in these resort areas.
Australian ski resorts need to diversify or ultimately close due to climate change.It is worth stressing again that diversification into all-year tourism is not only es¬ sential in order to survive under climate change, but would already be under current climate conditions. of great benefit due to the high interannual variability of snowfalls.

Summary: Climate Change and Snow Tourism in Australia
This paper examines impacts of climate change as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCQ on the snow-reliability ofthe Australian ski fields.It is shown that with a «best case» climate scenario for the Australian Alps, all but one resort (Mt Baw Baw) would have at least 60 days of natural snowcover in 2030 and would therefore still be snow-reliable.With a «worst case» scenario in 2070 on the other hand, none of Australia's current ski resorts would be able to operate a profitable ski industry.Possible adap¬ tation strategies ofthe ski industry to climate change are suggested.It is demonstrated that the more technical ad¬ aptation strategies such as snow-making, super-grooming, and snow-farming are well-developed in Australia, while clearly not enough has been done in both the de¬ velopment of non-snow related activities in winter and an enhanced all-season Visitation.This paper therefore argues that Australian ski resorts need to diversify more than they do today or they will ultimately close due to the negative effects of climate change. Zusammenfassung: Klimaänderung und Scheetourismus in Australien Der vorliegende Artikel untersucht mittels des «Gallo¬ way Schneemodell» Auswirkungen einer möglichen Klimaänderung auf die Schneesicherheit aller australi¬ schen Skigebiete für die Jahre 2030 und 2070.Mit ei¬ nem «best case scenario» für das Jahr 2030 verfügen mit einer Ausnahme (Mt Baw Baw) alle Skigebiete über mindestens 60 Schneedeckentage und können daher als schneesicher eingestuft werden.Mit einem «worst case scenario» für das Jahr 2070 allerdings würde keines der australischen Skigebiete die naturräumlichen Voraus¬ setzungen für einen profitablen Skitourismus erfüllen.