Shifting spatial patterns in German population  trends: local-level hot and cold spots, 1990–2019

Leibert, Tim; Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Annegret

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-77-369-2022

Articles | Volume 77, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-77-369-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

(Re)Thinking population geography

https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-77-369-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 77, issue 3

Standard article

|

23 Sep 2022

Standard article |

| 23 Sep 2022

Shifting spatial patterns in German population trends: local-level hot and cold spots, 1990–2019

Tim Leibert, Manuel Wolff, and Annegret Haase

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-77-369-2022-supplement

Model code and software

ArcMap 10.5 ESRI https://support.esri.com/en/products/desktop/arcgis-desktop/arcmap/10-8-2

Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) ArcGIS https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/tools/spatial-statistics-toolbox/hot-spot-analysis.htm

Cluster and Outlier Analysis (Anselin Local Moran's I) ArcGIS https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/tools/spatial-statistics-toolbox/cluster-and-outlier-analysis-anselin-local-moran-s.htm

Short summary

Population development of German municipalities is characterised by pronounced regional disparities. In recent years, we have witnessed population growth in most large cities and their suburban hinterlands and shrinkage in structurally weak rural areas. We shed new light on the patterns, trends and drivers of population development between 1990 and 2019. Using spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot–cold-spot analysis, we identify short- and long-term population trajectories.