Articles | Volume 77, issue 3
Standard article
23 Sep 2022
Standard article |  | 23 Sep 2022

Shifting spatial patterns in German population trends: local-level hot and cold spots, 1990–2019

Tim Leibert, Manuel Wolff, and Annegret Haase

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Cited articles

ArcGIS: Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), ArcGIS [code],, last access: 31 May 2022. 
ArcGIS: Cluster and Outlier Analysis (Anselin Local Moran's I), ArcGIS [code],, last access: 31 May 2022. 
BKG: Municiplaity boundaries, Shape files, (last access: 28 June 2021), 2020. 
Born, K. M.: Ländliche Räume in Deutschland: Differenzierungen, Entwicklungspfade und -brüche, Geogr. Rundsch., 63, 4–10, 2011. 
Brunet, R.: Lignes de force de l'espace Européen, Mappemonde, 66, 14–19, 2002. 
Short summary
Population development of German municipalities is characterised by pronounced regional disparities. In recent years, we have witnessed population growth in most large cities and their suburban hinterlands and shrinkage in structurally weak rural areas. We shed new light on the patterns, trends and drivers of population development between 1990 and 2019. Using spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot–cold-spot analysis, we identify short- and long-term population trajectories.